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NatWest share price forecast as its earnings jump: more upside?

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NatWest share price continued its strong bull run this week and reached its highest point since 2008. It has jumped by 62% from its lowest point this year, pushing its market cap to over $60 billion. 

NatWest share price jumped after earnings

NatWest, the parent company of companies like Coutts, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Ulster, published strong financial results as we predicted here

The company’s results showed that its net interest income rose to £3.268 billion in the third quarter from £3.09 billion in the same period last year. 

Its nine-month net interest rose to £9.3 billion, up from £8.3 billion in the same period last year. Most importantly, the company is growing its non-interest business. Its income jumped to £1.06 billion and £2.9 billion in the two periods, respectively. 

NatWest also published strong profit metrics. Its nine-month profit rose to £4.35 billion, while its third-quarter figure jumped to £1.68 billion. 

Other closely-watched parts of the company did well this year. Its net interest margin, cost-income ratio, and return on tangible equity all continued doing well. Paul Thwaite, the CEO said:

“NatWest Group delivered another strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, underpinned by healthy levels of customer activity and the continued support we provide to them. This is driving positive momentum across our three businesses, with continued lending growth and deposits remaining stable.”

Most importantly, the company boosted its forward guidance and now expects to have an EBITDA of £16.3 this year, up from the previous guidance of £16 billion. The closely-watched return on tangible equity (RoTE) will be over 18%.

Another important aspect is that its provisions for bad loans came in at £153 million, lower than what analysts were expecting. 

The turnaround strategy has worked

The ongoing NatWest share price gain is a sign that the company’s turnaround efforts are working. The company, which previously operated under the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), has made several efforts to grow its business. 

It has slashed costs by closing branches and laying off workers. Consequently, its cost-income ratio dropped to 47.8% in the first nine months from the previous 52.8%. Its quarterly figure dropped to 45.8% in the third quarter from the previous 49.1%.

The company has also worked to boost its balance sheet, with its common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio rising to 14.2%.

Additionally, the management invested heavily on technology, with most of its transactions now happening on mobile and desktop. 

NatWest stock price technical analysis

NWG stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the NatWest stock price has done well in the past few months. It jumped from a low of $349 earlier this year to a record high of $582. 

The stock then jumped after the stock formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. This triangle was part of the formation of the bullish pennant pattern, which is a common continuation sign. 

NatWest share price has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the most likely outlook is that it keeps rising, with the next point to watch being at 600p. 

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