{"id":37730,"date":"2025-03-12T11:36:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T11:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/12\/market-sell-off-how-long-before-we-hit-the-bottom\/"},"modified":"2025-03-12T11:36:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T11:36:18","slug":"market-sell-off-how-long-before-we-hit-the-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/12\/market-sell-off-how-long-before-we-hit-the-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Market sell-off: how long before we hit the bottom?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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US stocks have tanked sharply in recent weeks amidst concerns that higher tariffs under the Trump administration could lead to a global trade war.<\/p>\n

Additionally, markets are worried that President Trump\u2019s policies could <\/a>also lead to a recession<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

In total, the S&P 500 has lost nearly 10% since February 19, leaving investors wondering when the bleeding might finally stop and when it is appropriate to call the bottom.<\/p>\n

While the longer-term outlook for US equities remains uncertain, there\u2019s reason to believe that the sell-off is over now, at least for the near term.<\/p>\n

What the fear gauge is telling us about the market sell-off<\/h2>\n

\u201cVIX\u201d or the CBOE Volatility Index that\u2019s broadly known as the market\u2019s fear gauge has more than doubled versus its year-to-date low and printed a new high of 29 on Monday.<\/p>\n

Plus, the index\u2019s curve has inverted recently, which means near-term contracts are now priced higher than contracts further out.<\/p>\n

The unusual VIX curve inversion further indicates very high levels of fear in the near term that have historically signalled a short-term tradable bottom.<\/p>\n

Note that the benchmark S&P 500 index has now given back<\/a> more than half of the gain it had accumulated over the past seven months (since early August of 2024).  <\/p>\n

What to expect from the US stocks longer term<\/h2>\n

While the US stocks now look positioned to see some buying pressure in the near term, investors should remain cautious since the longer-term forecast remains foggy at best.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because the sell-off is now related more to broader concerns of a possible recession ahead.<\/p>\n

Trump tariffs could disrupt supply chains and increase costs for businesses this year, which they may pass on to consumers, leading to reduced spending \u2013 a notable driver of economic growth.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, countries like Canada, Mexico, and China have already announced retaliatory tariffs<\/a> that will likely hurt demand for US exports as well.<\/p>\n

Together, these factors may lead to an economic slowdown, potentially resulting in further decline in the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Is the United States already in recession?<\/h2>\n

What\u2019s also worth mentioning is that the recession debate may not be one for the future, according to Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research.<\/p>\n

Berezin started 2025 with a year-end target of 4,450 on the S&P 500. His worst-case scenario calls for the benchmark to revisit the 4,200 level this year as the US may already be in recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n

BCA sees increased probability of a recession under the new administration as \u201cTrump would be very disruptive in some negative ways, most of which is trade.\u201d<\/p>\n

Peter Berezin never bought into the narrative that Trump would use tariffs to potentially negotiate better trade terms. <\/p>\n

The US government actually needs the money to address its budget deficit, he argued in a recent note.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The post Market sell-off: how long before we hit the bottom?<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US stocks have tanked sharply in recent weeks amidst concerns that higher tariffs under the Trump administration could lead to a global trade war. Additionally, markets are worried that President Trump\u2019s policies could also lead to a recession. In total, the S&P 500 has lost nearly 10% since February 19, leaving investors wondering when the <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}