LONDON \u2014 Artificial intelligence that can match humans at any task is still some way off \u2014 but it\u2019s only a matter of time before it becomes a reality, according to the CEO of Google DeepMind.<\/p>\n
Speaking at a briefing in DeepMind\u2019s London offices on Monday, Demis Hassabis said that he thinks artificial general intelligence (AGI) \u2014 which is as smart or smarter than humans \u2014 will start to emerge in the next five or 10 years.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think today\u2019s systems, they\u2019re very passive, but there\u2019s still a lot of things they can\u2019t do. But I think over the next five to 10 years, a lot of those capabilities will start coming to the fore and we\u2019ll start moving towards what we call artificial general intelligence,\u201d Hassabis said.<\/p>\n
Hassabis defined AGI as \u201ca system that\u2019s able to exhibit all the complicated capabilities that humans can.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re not quite there yet. These systems are very impressive at certain things. But there are other things they can\u2019t do yet, and we\u2019ve still got quite a lot of research work to go before that,\u201d Hassabis said.<\/p>\n
Hassabis isn\u2019t alone in suggesting that it\u2019ll take a while for AGI to appear. Last year, the CEO of Chinese tech giant Baidu Robin Li said he sees AGI is \u201cmore than 10 years away,\u201d pushing back on excitable predictions from some of his peers about this breakthrough taking place in a much shorter timeframe.<\/p>\n
Hassabis\u2019 forecast pushes the timeline to reach AGI some way back compared to what his industry peers have been sketching out.<\/p>\n
Dario Amodei, CEO of AI startup Anthropic, told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January that he sees a form of AI that\u2019s \u201cbetter than almost all humans at almost all tasks\u201d emerging in the \u201cnext two or three years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Other tech leaders see AGI arriving even sooner. Cisco\u2019s Chief Product Officer Jeetu Patel thinks there\u2019s a chance we could see an example of AGI emerge as soon as this year. \u201cThere\u2019s three major phases\u201d to AI, Patel told CNBC in an interview at the Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona earlier this month.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s the basic AI that we\u2019re all experience right now. Then there is artificial general intelligence, where the cognitive capabilities meet those of humans. Then there\u2019s what they call superintelligence,\u201d Patel said.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think you will see meaningful evidence of AGI being in play in 2025. We\u2019re not talking about years away,\u201d he added. \u201cI think superintelligence is, at best, a few years out.\u201d<\/p>\n
Artificial super intelligence, or ASI, is expected to arrive after AGI and surpass human intelligence. However, \u201cno one really knows\u201d when such a breakthrough will happen, Hassabis said Monday.<\/p>\n
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted that AGI would likely be available by 2026, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said such a system could be developed in the \u201creasonably close-ish future.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hassabis said that the main challenge with achieving artificial general intelligence is getting today\u2019s AI systems to a point of understanding context from the real world.<\/p>\n
While it\u2019s been possible to develop systems that can break down problems and complete tasks autonomously in the realm of games \u2014 such as the complex strategy board game Go \u2014 bringing such a technology into the real world is proving harder.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe question is, how fast can we generalize the planning ideas and agentic kind of behaviors, planning and reasoning, and then generalize that over to working in the real world, on top of things like world models \u2014 models that are able to understand the world around us,\u201d Hassabis said.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd I think we\u2019ve made good progress with the world models over the last couple of years,\u201d he added. \u201cSo now the question is, what\u2019s the best way to combine that with these planning algorithms?\u201d<\/p>\n
Hassabis and Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google\u2019s cloud computing division, said that so-called \u201cmulti-agent\u201d AI systems are a technological advancement that\u2019s gaining a lot of traction behind the scenes.<\/p>\n
Hassabis said lots of work is being done to get to this stage. One example he referred to is DeepMind\u2019s work getting AI agents to figure out how to play the popular strategy game \u201cStarcraft.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve done a lot of work on that with things like Starcraft game in the past, where you have a society of agents, or a league of agents, and they could be competing, they could be cooperating,\u201d DeepMind\u2019s chief said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you think about agent to agent communication, that\u2019s what we\u2019re also doing to allow an agent to express itself … What are your skills? What kind of tools do you use?\u201d Kurian said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThose are all elements that you need to be able to ask an agent a question, and then once you have that interface, then other agents can communicate with it,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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