{"id":40282,"date":"2025-06-02T11:36:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T11:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/02\/usd-try-analysis-as-goldman-sachs-warns-on-lira-carry-trade\/"},"modified":"2025-06-02T11:36:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T11:36:09","slug":"usd-try-analysis-as-goldman-sachs-warns-on-lira-carry-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/02\/usd-try-analysis-as-goldman-sachs-warns-on-lira-carry-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/TRY analysis as Goldman Sachs warns on lira carry trade"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Turkish lira has slipped against the US dollar as Goldman Sachs analysts warned about the best-performing carry trade. The USD\/TRY exchange rate was trading at 39.25, up by 11% this year, and down from the year-to-date high of 39.85. <\/p>\n

Is the Turkish lira carry trade at risk?<\/h2>\n

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning that the world\u2019s top carry trade is at risk of unwinding as the Turkish central bank allows the local currency to depreciate. In a recent note, the analyst said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt is plausible that the bank has decided not to focus on a rebuild of reserves on carry-driven foreign inflows. Hence, depreciating the lira might be partially a policy to keep that money out.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The statement came as data showed that the central bank was allowing the Turkish lira to depreciate faster than usual.<\/p>\n

It is doing this as recent survey data showed that many exporters complained that the currency was highly overvalued. An overvalued currency makes it difficult for exporters to sell their products abroad. <\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs analysts still believe that policymakers will change its tone at least in July, when it expects to start cutting interest rates in July. They wrote:<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe view the current FX policy as the central bank front-loading the depreciation required to avoid a meaningful real appreciation.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The USD\/TRY has been the best-performing carry trade<\/a> pair this year. A carry trade is a situation where an investor borrows in a low-interest-rate country and then invests in a higher-yielding one. <\/p>\n

In this case, the Federal Reserve has left interest rates at 4.50% this year. At the same time, the CBRT delivered a big interest rate cut as the Turkish lira plunged following the arrest of a popular mayor. It hiked rates from 42.5% to 46%, bucking the trend since it had previously slashed rates three times.<\/p>\n

One way of doing the USD\/TRY carry trade is in the bond market, where the Turkish 10-year bond has jumped to 31.45% and the US yield stands at 4.40%. Therefore, borrowing US dollars to invest in Turkish bonds attracts at good return, which Goldman Sachs warns could be at risk.<\/p>\n

The next important USD\/TRY news will come out on Tuesday when Turkey will publish the latest inflation data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 3% to 2%, and from 37.86% to 36.1%, respectively. The CBRT aims to lower inflation to 24% by the end of the year and 12% in 2026.<\/p>\n

USD\/TRY technical analysis<\/h2>\n
USDTRY chart | Source: TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The weekly chart shows that the USD\/TRY exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It has remained above all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved above the overbought level. <\/p>\n

Therefore, the USD to TRY pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance point at 41. A move below the 50-day moving average at 35.62 will invalidate the bullish view.<\/p>\n

The post USD\/TRY analysis as Goldman Sachs warns on lira carry trade<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Turkish lira has slipped against the US dollar as Goldman Sachs analysts warned about the best-performing carry trade. The USD\/TRY exchange rate was trading at 39.25, up by 11% this year, and down from the year-to-date high of 39.85.  Is the Turkish lira carry trade at risk? Analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning that <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-40282","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}