{"id":43138,"date":"2025-09-03T11:37:21","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T11:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/03\/sovecon-raises-russian-wheat-export-forecast-for-2025-26-but-initial-shipments-low\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T11:37:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T11:37:21","slug":"sovecon-raises-russian-wheat-export-forecast-for-2025-26-but-initial-shipments-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/03\/sovecon-raises-russian-wheat-export-forecast-for-2025-26-but-initial-shipments-low\/","title":{"rendered":"SovEcon raises Russian wheat export forecast for 2025-26, but initial shipments low"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Leading agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised upwards its projection for Russian wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing season. <\/p>\n

The firm now anticipates Russia to ship a robust 43.7 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat, an increase of 0.4 mmt from its previous forecast. <\/p>\n

This upward revision underscores Russia’s growing dominance in the global wheat market.<\/p>\n

Revised forecast and growth<\/h2>\n

The new forecast for 2025-26 highlights a significant year-on-year increase in export volumes. <\/p>\n

In the preceding 2024-25 season, Russia successfully exported 40.8 mmt of wheat, a figure that already established its position as a major supplier.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The projected 43.7 mmt for the upcoming season represents a substantial 7.1% growth over the previous year’s performance, indicating strong production capabilities and competitive pricing from Russian suppliers.<\/p>\n

The US Department of Agriculture projects Russian wheat exports at 46.0 mmt.<\/p>\n

SovEcon scaled up its forecast for wheat exports for the 2025-26 season. However, shipments continue to remain historically low in the first months of the season. <\/p>\n

Factors influencing upward revision<\/h2>\n

This optimistic revision is primarily attributed to highly favorable crop prospects, suggesting robust growth and a strong harvest. <\/p>\n

This positive outlook for exports has outweighed the current low shipment figures, leading to an improved forecast for the season as a whole.<\/p>\n

The export forecast has been adjusted upwards after the production estimate rose to 85.4 mmt from 83.6 mmt in July. This compares to 82.6 mmt harvested by Russian farmers a year prior.<\/p>\n

Crop prospects in the Urals and Siberia improved, leading to an upward revision, SovEcon said.<\/p>\n

The consultancy said:<\/p>\n

\n

Despite relatively good crop prospects, we are not ready to raise the estimate more significantly given the sluggish start of the export campaign.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

According to SovEcon, cumulative wheat exports for July and August reached 6.1 mmt. <\/p>\n

This figure is notably lower than the 9.9 mmt exported during the same period last year and falls short of the five-year average of 8.1 mmt.<\/p>\n

September export figures are also expected to be historically low.<\/p>\n

Challenges and market dynamics<\/h2>\n

This season has seen a decrease in Russian wheat purchases by major importers.<\/p>\n

Shipments to Egypt totaled 1.1 mmt in July\u2013August, a decrease from 1.5 mmt in the previous year. Similarly, Algeria’s imports fell from 0.5 mmt last year to 0.1 mmt. <\/p>\n

Importers might look to Argentina and Australia for new crops in the coming months, as the outlooks in those regions are getting better, SovEcon said. <\/p>\n

Australia’s farm ministry increased its 2025-26 wheat production forecast in September to 33.8 mmt, a 22% rise over the 10-year average and an increase from June’s estimate of 30.6 mmt.<\/p>\n

Market participants anticipate that Argentina’s wheat production will surpass 20 mmt, an increase from 18.6 million metric tons last year.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, despite a sharp drop in energy prices, the ruble has remained relatively stable, hovering around 80 per dollar since early August.<\/p>\n

Falling FOB prices are exacerbating the challenges faced by Russian exporters, the consultancy said. In fact, export prices dropped by $7\/mt to $233\/mt from mid-to-late August alone.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect some growth in exports as domestic wheat prices in ruble terms continue to decline,\u201d Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said. <\/p>\n

\n

In recent weeks, exporters\u2019 bids have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, we expect to see further declines in export prices and a gradual recovery in shipments.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The post SovEcon raises Russian wheat export forecast for 2025-26, but initial shipments low<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Leading agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised upwards its projection for Russian wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing season.  The firm now anticipates Russia to ship a robust 43.7 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat, an increase of 0.4 mmt from its previous forecast. This upward revision underscores Russia’s growing dominance in the global wheat market. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-43138","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investing"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}