{"id":43336,"date":"2025-09-10T11:36:52","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T11:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/10\/eur-usd-forecast-heres-why-it-may-hit-1-200-soon\/"},"modified":"2025-09-10T11:36:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T11:36:52","slug":"eur-usd-forecast-heres-why-it-may-hit-1-200-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/10\/eur-usd-forecast-heres-why-it-may-hit-1-200-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD forecast: here\u2019s why it may hit 1.200 soon"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The EUR\/USD exchange rate could be on cusp of a strong bullish breakout to the important resistance at 1.200 amid a potential divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). It was trading at 1.1700 today, up by 15% from its lowest point this year.<\/p>\n

ECB and Federal Reserve divergence<\/h2>\n

There are signs that the ECB and the Federal Reserve will move in divergent paths in the coming months. <\/p>\n

Most economists expect that the ECB will maintain interest rates steady in its meeting on Thursday since inflation has moved to its target of 2.0%. <\/p>\n

The most recent preliminary data showed that the annual inflation in the bloc stood at 2.1% in August, while core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.1%.<\/p>\n

The bloc\u2019s inflation may remain in this range for a while or even drop further because of the stronger euro and the falling energy prices. <\/p>\n

Data show that the Brent crude oil price<\/a> has dropped to $67, down by over 18% from its highest point this year. It has fallen because of the ongoing OPEC+ increases.<\/p>\n

The ECB will maintain low interest rates as it works to boost the bloc\u2019s economic growth at a time when it is facing major challenges. For example, the bloc\u2019s top companies are now paying higher tariff rates whenever they ship their products to the United States.<\/p>\n

Additionally, France has remained in a perpetual political crisis that saw the previous prime minister lose his job. <\/p>\n

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts <\/h2>\n

The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is expected to start cutting interest rates next week. Most analysts see the cut being 0.25%, but some analysts see it being bigger. In a note, Ing analysts said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe Fed\u2019s own Beige Book made for grim reading earlier this week and that was the catalyst for a 50bp move last year to kick things off in terms of Fed rate cuts. However, the conservative make-up of the Fed (for now) and uncertainty over tariffs on inflation means there probably won’t be a majority, but we could see two or three voting for 50bp.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Donald Trump has said that he would prefer a mega rate cut, including a 300 basis points one. In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, he said that the bank should slash rates by 100 basis points.<\/p>\n

The Fed is now living in its nightmare scenario, where the unemployment rate and inflation are rising. A report released last week showed that the unemployment rate<\/a> rose to 4.3% in August as the economy added 22,000 jobs.<\/p>\n

Another report this week showed that the number of Americans on payroll was much smaller than expected. A preliminary report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics lowered the number by 911,000, the biggest downward revision in years.<\/p>\n

The next important catalyst for the EUR\/USD pair will be the upcoming US consumer inflation data on Thursday. Economists see the report showing that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9%, while the core CPI moved to 3.3%.<\/p>\n

The EUR\/USD exchange rate will likely continue rising as odds of more Fed and ECB divergence rise.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD technical analysis <\/h2>\n
EUR\/USD chart | Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The weekly chart shows that the EUR\/USD exchange rate has rebounded in the past few months, moving from a low of 1.0170 in January to a high of 1.1830 on June 23rd.<\/p>\n

It formed a golden cross pattern in June as the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. This cross often leads to more gains over time.<\/p>\n

The pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern, which is characterized by a long vertical line and a symmetrical triangle.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the pair will likely have a strong bullish breakout in the coming weeks as the two lines of the triangle are nearing their confluence levels. A bullish breakout will push it to the psychological level at 1.2000.<\/p>\n

The post EUR\/USD forecast: here\u2019s why it may hit 1.200 soon<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The EUR\/USD exchange rate could be on cusp of a strong bullish breakout to the important resistance at 1.200 amid a potential divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). It was trading at 1.1700 today, up by 15% from its lowest point this year. ECB and Federal Reserve divergence There are <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-43336","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43336"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43336\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}