{"id":47208,"date":"2026-01-28T11:35:33","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T11:35:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/28\/usd-brl-forecast-ahead-of-the-fed-and-brazilian-central-bank-decisions\/"},"modified":"2026-01-28T11:35:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T11:35:33","slug":"usd-brl-forecast-ahead-of-the-fed-and-brazilian-central-bank-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/28\/usd-brl-forecast-ahead-of-the-fed-and-brazilian-central-bank-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/BRL forecast ahead of the Fed and Brazilian central bank decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Brazilian real continued its strong rally this week, reaching its highest level since May 2024 as the US dollar sell-off gained momentum. The USD\/BRL exchange rate has dropped in the last five consecutive weeks and is down by 18% from its highest level since December 2024.<\/p>\n

Brazilian real surges ahead of the central bank decision <\/h2>\n

The USD\/BRL exchange rate continued falling this week as investors waited for the upcoming Brazilian central bank decision<\/a>, which will come out on Thursday morning.<\/p>\n

The decision comes two days after the statistics agency published a strong inflation report. <\/p>\n

The report showed that the annual inflation rose in early January, with the headline figure rising 4.50%, slightly lower than the sector median of 4.52%. This increase was largely because of the rising food and beverage prices.<\/p>\n

More data showed that inflation expectation has continued rising in the past few months, a move that will put pressure on the country\u2019s central bank.<\/p>\n

Economists expect that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at 15% for the second consecutive meeting. Before that, the bank hiked rates from a low of 10.5% in August 2024.<\/p>\n

A survey released this week estimated that the bank will cut interest rates to 12.5% by the end of the year and an additional 275 basis points through 2029.<\/p>\n

The Brazilian real has done better than expected despite the ongoing trade jitters between the United States and Brazil. Donald Trump implemented a large tariff on most goods coming from the country as he protested the arrest and jailing of President Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n

On the positive side, the country has benefited from the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China. It is widely seen as a better alternative to the US in terms of agricultural exports to China.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve interest rate decision ahead <\/h2>\n

The USD\/BRL exchange rate continued falling as traders waited for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. It will be the first time that the bank has left rates unchanged in the last three meetings.<\/p>\n

The most recent data showed that the US economy was doing well, with the GDP growth coming in at 4.4% in the third quarter. Inflation has largely stabilized, while the labor market has started to improve.<\/p>\n

USD\/BRL technical analysis<\/h2>\n
<\/figure>\n

USDBRL chart | Source: TradingView<\/p>\n

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the USD to BRL exchange rate has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of 6.30 in 2024 to the current 5.18. <\/p>\n

The pair has recently crossed the important support at 5.2642, its lowest level in September and November last year. It has moved below the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).<\/p>\n

The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has remained below the zero line. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50 and is pointing downwards.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling, with the next key support being at 4.50. A move above the resistance level at 5.2642 will invalidate the bearish outlook,<\/p>\n

The post USD\/BRL forecast ahead of the Fed and Brazilian central bank decisions<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Brazilian real continued its strong rally this week, reaching its highest level since May 2024 as the US dollar sell-off gained momentum. The USD\/BRL exchange rate has dropped in the last five consecutive weeks and is down by 18% from its highest level since December 2024. Brazilian real surges ahead of the central bank <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-47208","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}