{"id":48030,"date":"2026-03-09T11:35:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:35:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/09\/iran-war-raises-risk-of-us-stock-market-meltdown-ed-yardeni-warns\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T11:35:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:35:15","slug":"iran-war-raises-risk-of-us-stock-market-meltdown-ed-yardeni-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/09\/iran-war-raises-risk-of-us-stock-market-meltdown-ed-yardeni-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war raises risk of US stock market meltdown, Ed Yardeni warns"},"content":{"rendered":"
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US equities face rising downside risks as the escalating war in Iran disrupts global markets and fuels inflation concerns, according to veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni.<\/p>\n

In his latest outlook, Yardeni increased the probability of a market meltdown this year to 35%, up from 20% previously. <\/p>\n

At the same time, he sharply lowered the chances of a market meltup \u2014 a rally driven largely by investor enthusiasm rather than fundamentals \u2014 to just 5% from 20%.<\/p>\n

The reassessment reflects growing uncertainty in financial markets as oil prices surge above $100 a barrel<\/a> and investors brace for the economic consequences of prolonged geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Oil shock complicates economic outlook<\/h2>\n

The sharp rise in oil prices has become a central concern for markets and policymakers alike.<\/p>\n

Higher energy costs risk slowing economic growth while simultaneously pushing inflation higher, a combination that could complicate the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decisions.<\/p>\n

Yardeni warned that the central bank could find itself in a difficult position if the oil shock persists.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe US economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place currently. So is the Fed,\u201d Yardeni wrote in a note. \u201cIf the oil shock persists, the Fed\u2019s dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oil prices have surged amid fears of supply disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, raising the prospect that inflation pressures could remain elevated for longer than previously expected.<\/p>\n

Investors have already begun scaling back expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

Markets shift to defensive positioning<\/h2>\n

Financial markets have started to reflect the heightened uncertainty.<\/p>\n

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has climbed nearly 2% since the war began, highlighting a shift toward safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n

US equities have so far proved somewhat more resilient than global peers. <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 declined about 2% last week, compared with a 3.7% drop in MSCI\u2019s broadest gauge of global equities.<\/p>\n

Analysts say that relative resilience partly reflects the United States\u2019 greater energy self-sufficiency compared with regions such as Asia.<\/p>\n

However, signs of rising caution among investors are becoming more visible.<\/p>\n

S&P 500 futures dropped more than 2% during Asian trading hours on Monday, pointing to further pressure on US stocks. <\/p>\n

Hedge funds have also increased short positions in US equity exchange-traded funds.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the Cboe VIX Index \u2014 a widely watched gauge of market volatility \u2014 climbed to its highest level since April\u2019s tariff turmoil.<\/p>\n

Bond markets are also reacting to the inflation risk. <\/p>\n

Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes rose six basis points as traders priced in the possibility of higher inflation.<\/p>\n

Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted accordingly. <\/p>\n

Investors are now pushing back the timing of the next quarter-point reduction to September, compared with earlier expectations for a move in July. <\/p>\n

Some bond options traders are even betting that the central bank may not cut rates at all this year.<\/p>\n

Long-term outlook remains positive<\/h2>\n

Despite the near-term risks, Yardeni\u2019s broader outlook for the US economy remains relatively optimistic.<\/p>\n

He continues to assign a 60% probability to what he calls the \u201cRoaring 2020s\u201d scenario through the end of the year. <\/p>\n

The framework envisions a period of sustained economic growth supported by strong productivity gains.<\/p>\n

Looking further ahead, the strategist sees an even higher likelihood that this trend will continue.<\/p>\n

Yardeni assigns an 85% probability to a continuation of the Roaring 2020s over the coming decade, while placing a 15% chance on what he describes as a \u201cstagflating 1970s redux.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he cautioned that market sentiment could shift quickly if inflation expectations begin to rise significantly.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf investors start expecting stagflation, a bear market is more likely,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

For now, investors remain focused on how the Iran conflict evolves and whether rising energy prices will translate into sustained economic pressures.<\/p>\n

The post Iran war raises risk of US stock market meltdown, Ed Yardeni warns<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US equities face rising downside risks as the escalating war in Iran disrupts global markets and fuels inflation concerns, according to veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni. In his latest outlook, Yardeni increased the probability of a market meltdown this year to 35%, up from 20% previously. At the same time, he sharply lowered the chances <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48031,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-48030","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investing"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48030\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48031"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}