{"id":48320,"date":"2026-03-28T11:34:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T11:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/28\/lumentum-stock-wyckoff-theory-points-to-a-steep-crash-soon\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T11:34:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T11:34:55","slug":"lumentum-stock-wyckoff-theory-points-to-a-steep-crash-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/28\/lumentum-stock-wyckoff-theory-points-to-a-steep-crash-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"Lumentum stock: Wyckoff Theory points to a steep crash soon"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Lumentum stock price has gone vertical this year and is now trading at its all-time high. <\/p>\n

LITE jumped to a high of $803, up by 1,600% from its lowest level in December. <\/p>\n

This rally may be about to end as it approaches the distribution phase of the Wyckoff Theory.<\/p>\n

Wyckoff Theory suggests that the Lumentum stock price may retreat soon<\/h2>\n

The weekly timeframe chart explains why the Lumentum stock price has jumped in the past few months. <\/p>\n

This chart shows that the stock remained inside a narrow range between the support and resistance levels at $37 and $105 between December 2018 and July last year.<\/p>\n

Attempts to move above the upper side found substantial resistance several times. Also, it failed to move below the lower side.<\/p>\n

Therefore, this price action is a sign that the stock was inside the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Theory, which is characterised by sideways price action.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The accumulation phase is then followed by the markup phase, which is characterised by high demand and the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).<\/p>\n

In most cases, the markup phase is usually triggered by a major event, which, in this case, was a $2 billion investment made by NVIDIA<\/a> in the company.<\/p>\n

The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have continued rising this year. <\/p>\n

Also, the RSI had moved to the extreme overbought level, while the two lines of the MACD have moved to the highest level in years.<\/p>\n

As such, the stock may be nearing the distribution and the markdown phase, which are characterised by steep declines as investors book profits.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If this happens, the Lumentum stock may drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $515, which is about 35% below the current level. <\/p>\n

A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the 50% retracement level at $425, down by 47% from the current level.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Lumentum stock chart | Source: TradingView <\/em><\/p>\n

A good example of the Wyckoff Theory in action is shown in the weekly chart of the Zcash price, which is shown below. <\/p>\n

This chart shows that the token remained in a tight range between June 2022 and September last year.<\/p>\n

It then went parabolic and reached a record high of $745 in November last year. <\/p>\n

It did that as it moved to the markup phase, as demand from investors rose. <\/p>\n

It then moved to the markdown phase, to the current $220, which is about 70% below the highest point last year.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Zcash price chart | Source: TradingView <\/em><\/p>\n

Lumentum\u2019s valuation has jumped recently <\/h2>\n

Third-party data shows that Lumentum stock has become highly overvalued. <\/p>\n

According to Seeking Alpha, the company has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 101, much higher than the sector median of 21. <\/p>\n

Based on the GAAP metrics, the company has a forward multiple of 174.<\/p>\n

These numbers are huge considering that the S&P 500 Index has a multiple of 23. <\/p>\n

Also, the valuation is much higher than other large technology companies, including NVIDIA and Micron, which have multiples of less than 25.<\/p>\n

On the positive side, Lumentum has a strong growth momentum as demand for its products rises amid the ongoing AI boom.<\/p>\n

The most recent numbers showed that the company’s revenue rose by 65% in the last quarter, helped by the components division, which made over $443 million and its systems segment, which made $221 million. <\/p>\n

Analysts expect<\/a> that the revenue growth will continue in the coming years. <\/p>\n

The average estimate is that its revenue growth will be 76% this year to $2.91 billion, and 65% next year to $4.8 billion. <\/p>\n

If this trend continues, the company\u2019s revenue will likely hit $10 billion in the coming years.<\/p>\n

The post Lumentum stock: Wyckoff Theory points to a steep crash soon<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lumentum stock price has gone vertical this year and is now trading at its all-time high. LITE jumped to a high of $803, up by 1,600% from its lowest level in December. This rally may be about to end as it approaches the distribution phase of the Wyckoff Theory. Wyckoff Theory suggests that the Lumentum <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-48320","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48320\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}