{"id":49596,"date":"2026-06-03T11:36:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T11:36:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/03\/spacexs-mega-ipo-plan-hits-a-wall-morningstar-sees-a-970-billion-gap\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T11:36:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T11:36:24","slug":"spacexs-mega-ipo-plan-hits-a-wall-morningstar-sees-a-970-billion-gap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/03\/spacexs-mega-ipo-plan-hits-a-wall-morningstar-sees-a-970-billion-gap\/","title":{"rendered":"SpaceX&#8217;s mega IPO plan hits a wall: Morningstar sees a $970 billion gap"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><\/div>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX is preparing for the kind of stock-market debut Wall Street rarely gets to see: a planned $75 billion raise, a June 12 Nasdaq listing, and a target valuation of $1.75 trillion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It is the sort of number that turns an IPO into a spectacle, but just as the roadshow begins, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/stocks\/spacex-what-investors-need-know-about-its-enormous-upcoming-ipo\">Morningstar<\/a> has put a far colder figure on the table. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Its estimate of SpaceX\u2019s fair value is $780 billion, leaving a valuation gap of nearly $970 billion.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SpaceX IPO: A trillion-dollar disconnect<\/h2>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The clash is simple enough to understand. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX wants public investors to value the company at $1.75 trillion. Morningstar says it is worth $780 billion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The difference is bigger than the market value of many of the world\u2019s largest public companies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That $970 billion gap is what makes the research note so striking as this is not a modest disagreement over a premium.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It is an independent research firm saying the market may be paying almost twice what the business is worth today.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The contrast looks even sharper because private-market enthusiasm has already been intense. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX was last valued at $1.5 trillion on secondary trading platform Forge Global.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The IPO target would take that figure even higher, despite the company still asking investors to underwrite a long list of future technologies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens put the concern plainly. <\/p>\n<div id=\"quotation-block_ce5dfd1921e071d1935590e1ebbb5bf5\" class=\"quotation\">\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 0;padding-left: 1rem;border-left: 4px solid #ccc\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0 0 0.75rem 0;font-size: 1.125rem;line-height: 1.6\"> We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO. <\/p>\n<footer style=\"font-size: 0.9375rem;color: #555\"><cite style=\"font-style: normal;font-weight: 600\">Nicolas Owens<\/cite><br \/><span>Equity analyst at Morningstar<\/span><\/footer>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That does not mean Morningstar is calling SpaceX a weak company. It means the firm is separating a great business from a great price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Also read: <a href=\"https:\/\/invezz.com\/news\/2026\/06\/02\/5-things-to-know-before-buying-spacex-ipo\/\">5 things to know before buying SpaceX IPO<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Three businesses, three question marks<\/h2>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Morningstar\u2019s caution comes from how SpaceX is being valued across its three big pillars.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The first is the core business: launches and Starlink. This is the part investors understand best. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX has transformed launch economics with reusable rockets, while Starlink has become the company\u2019s most visible consumer and connectivity business. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Owens\u2019 model values the launch and Starlink operations at about $611 billion, which is enormous by any normal standard.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But even there, Morningstar sees limits. Starlink still faces technological hurdles, including satellite capacity, network performance, spectrum rules and competition in broadband markets. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The second pillar is artificial intelligence, including xAI and Grok. That is where the story becomes more speculative. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX has tied part of its future pitch to machine-learning infrastructure and Musk\u2019s broader technology ecosystem. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Morningstar is not dismissing the opportunity entirely, as it assigns about $170 billion to probability-weighted outcomes tied to the AI business.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The caution is that the economics are still unclear. OpenAI, Anthropic and other labs are already fighting for talent, customers, computing power and capital. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Owens was blunt on that point: \u201cWe don\u2019t see Grok as one of the leading AI labs today.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The third pillar is the most futuristic: orbital data centres. The idea is bold, and it fits Musk\u2019s reputation for making investors look far ahead. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But for Morningstar, that is exactly the problem. Space-based computing is still unproven at commercial scale, and a meaningful part of the AI valuation depends on technology that has not yet been built.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Also read: <a href=\"https:\/\/invezz.com\/invest\/how-to-invest-in-spacex\/\">How to Invest in SpaceX Before Its IPO in 2026<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short-term pop, long-term caution<\/h2>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Morningstar is not predicting an immediate flop as the firm expects SpaceX shares could rise in the near term because the IPO float is limited and investor appetite is high.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are among the major banks underwriting the deal. Their presence signals that large institutions are taking the listing seriously. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The roadshow starts on June 4, with trading expected to begin on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX is also not a typical IPO candidate. It has a dominant launch franchise, a huge satellite network, a powerful retail-investor following and one of the most recognisable founders in global business. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But Owens\u2019 is warning that excitement around a historic listing can create a poor margin of safety. <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Once the first wave of demand fades and the market begins judging quarterly numbers, the stock may have to prove that the $1.75 trillion dream is more than a Musk premium.<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/invezz.com\/news\/2026\/06\/03\/spacexs-mega-ipo-plan-hits-a-wall-morningstar-sees-a-970-billion-gap\/\">SpaceX&#039;s mega IPO plan hits a wall: Morningstar sees a $970 billion gap<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/invezz.com\">Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SpaceX is preparing for the kind of stock-market debut Wall Street rarely gets to see: a planned $75 billion raise, a June 12 Nasdaq listing, and a target valuation of $1.75 trillion. It is the sort of number that turns an IPO into a spectacle, but just as the roadshow begins, Morningstar has put a <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49597,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quickassetsmarket.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}